Risky business?

New York Times 2020-05-15: 

"Szwecja pozostała otwarta. Zgony w ciągu ostatniego miesiąca pokazują ryzyko"

Najciekawsze tezy

• przebieg epidemii w Szwecji okazuje się bardziej groźny w porównaniu z sąsiednimi krajami, ale nadal jest łagodniejszy niż w wielu krajach, które wprowadziły poważne restrykcje
• porównanie nadumieralności w krajach Europy wg NYT (ryc. 1)
• nadumieralność w Sztokholmie, gdzie choroba nawiedziła również dzielnice imigrantów, jest bliska tej obserwowanej w Paryżu
• szpitale nie zostały sparaliżowane liczbą chorych
• całościowy obraz dotyczący liczby zmarłych będzie dostępny po miesiącach lub latach
• Szwedzi posłuchali się zaleceń dotyczących zmian sposobu życia podobnie jak mieszkańcy sąsiednich krajów
• nawet bez całkowitego lockdownu ekonomia Szwecji doznała poważnych strat
• z pełną oceną Szwecji należy zaczekać, ale podejmowane jest ryzyko i na szali jest ludzkie życie

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NYT: "Sweden Stayed Open. A Deadly Month Shows the Risks."

Sweden’s outbreak has been far deadlier than those of its neighbors, but it’s still better off than many countries that enforced strict lockdowns.

By late March, nearly every country in Europe had closed schools and businesses, restricted travel and ordered citizens to stay home. But one country stood out for its decision to stay open: Sweden. [...]

But while Sweden has avoided the devastating tolls of outbreaks in Italy, Spain and Britain, it also has seen an extraordinary increase in deaths, mortality data show.

In Stockholm, where the virus spread through migrant communities, more than twice the usual number of people died last month. That increase far surpasses the rise in deaths in American cities like Boston and Chicago, and approaches the increase seen in Paris.

Across Sweden, almost 30 percent more people died during the epidemic than is normal during this time of year, an increase similar to that of the United States and far higher than the small increases seen in its neighboring countries. While Sweden is the largest country in Scandinavia, all have strong public health care systems and low health inequality across the population. [...]

[...] Two months later, it has not been the worst-case scenario many envisioned. Covid-19 deaths have disproportionately hit the elderly and those in nursing homes, as is the case in most countries, but hospitals have not been overwhelmed. As with the rest of the world, it will be months, or even years, before the full picture of mortality emerges.

“It is clear that mortality in Stockholm has been a lot higher than you would expect from a normal year,” said Martin Kolk, a demographer at Stockholm University. “But we will have to wait and see what happens. It’s a very big difference if we continue to see excess mortality for six more months, or if it will be back to normal levels in a few weeks.” [...]

Instead of imposing strict lockdowns, public health officials said that Swedes could be relied on to go out less and follow sanitation guidelines. That proved to be true: As a whole, Swedes visited restaurants, retail shops and other recreation spots almost as little as residents of neighboring countries, according to Google mobility figures.

[...] Even without a full lockdown, Sweden’s economy has not been unscathed. Preliminary evidence shows Sweden has suffered similar economic effects as its neighbors: The Swedish Central Bank projects the country’s G.D.P. will contract by 7 to 10 percent this year, an estimate on par with the rest of Europe. (The European Commission projects the E.U. economy will contract by 7.5 percent.)

That could change. But the country’s high death toll offers a warning, demographers say.

“Sweden will be judged at the finish line,” Mr. Noymer said. “But it’s a very high-stakes risk, and the consequences are people's lives.”